Working Papers and Publications

Working Papers

Joshua Aizenman, Ilan Noy. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the History of Crises in Open Economies", Department working paper, November 2012.

Joshua Aizenman. "The US 19th and 20th century experiences: Lessons for the Eurozone crisis", Department working paper, October 2012.

Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak. "Income inequality, tax base and sovereign spreads", Department working paper, June 2012.

Joshua Aizenman. "The Euro and the global crises: finding the balance between short term stabilization and forward looking reforms", Department working paper, May 2012.

Joshua Aizenman and Kenta Inoue. "Central Banks and Gold Puzzles", Department working paper, February 2012.

Joshua Aizenman and Hiro Ito. "Trilemma Policy Convergence Patterns and Output Volatility", Department working paper, January 2012.

Joshua Aizenman, Sebastian Edwards, and Daniel Riera-Crichton. "Adjustment Patterns to Commodity terms of Trade Shocks: The Role of Exchange Rate and International Reserves Policies", Department working paper, December 2011. VoxEU page. Forthcoming, Journal of International Money and Finance.

Joshua Aizenman and Rajeswari Sengupta. "The Financial Trilemma in China and a Comparative Analysis with India", Department working paper, Revised March 2012. VoxEu page, forthcoming, Pacific Economic Review.

Joshua Aizenman, Brian Pinto, and Vladyslav Sushko. "Financial Sector Ups and Downs and the Real Sector: Up by the Stairs and Down by the Parachute", Department working paper, Revised November 2012.

Joshua Aizenman, Yothin Jinjarak, and Donghyun Park. "Capital Flows and Economic Growth in the Era of Financial Integration and Crisis, 1990-2010", Department working paper, October 2011.

Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak. "Income Inequality, Tax Base and Sovereign Spreads", Department working paper, October 2011.

Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak. "The Fiscal Stimulus of 2009-10: Trade Openness, Fiscal Space and Exchange Rate Adjustment", SCIIE / Department working paper, July 2011, forthcoming, NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2011, Jeff Frankel and C. Pissarides, editors. VoxEU page

Joshua Aizenman and Brian Pinto. "Managing Financial Integration and Capital Mobility—Policy lessons from the past two decades", SCIIE / Department working paper, July 2011. VoxEU page

Joshua Aizenman and Vladyslav Sushko. "Capital Flow Types, External Financing Needs, and Industrial Growth: 99 countries, 1991-2007", SCIIE / Department working paper, July 2011.

Joshua Aizenman and Vladyslav Sushko. "Capital flows: Catalyst or Hindrance to economic takeoffs?", SCIIE / Department working paper, July 2011.

Joshua Aizenman, Menzie Chinn and Hiro Ito. "Surfing the Waves of Globalization: Asia and Financial Globalizatio in the Context of the Trilemma", Department working paper, June 2011.

Joshua Aizenman and Gurnain Pasricha. "The Net Fiscal Expenditure Stimulus in the U.S., 2008-9: Less Than What You Might Think, and Less Than the Fiscal Stimuli of Most OECD Countries", Department working paper, June 2011.

Joshua Aizenman. "The Impossible Trinity - from the Policy Trilemma to the Policy Quadrilemma", Department working paper, March 2011.

Joshua Aizenman, Michael Hutchison and Yothin Jinjarak. "What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Mispricing of Risk", Department working paper, revised September 2011.

Joshua Aizenman and Gurnain Pasricha. "Net Fiscal Stimulus During the Great Recession", Department working paper, February 2011.

Joshua Aizenman and Yothin Jinjarak. "De facto Fiscal Space and Fiscal Stimulus: Definition and Assessment", SCIIE / Department working paper, revised December 2010.

Joshua Aizenman, Jaewoo Lee and Vladyslav Sushko. "From the Great Moderation to the Global Crisis: Exchange Market Pressure in the 2000s", SCIIE / Department working paper, October 2010. VoxEU page

Joshua Aizenman and Rajeswari Sengupta. "Global Imbalances: Is Germany the new China? A Skeptical View", SCIIE / Department working paper, December 2010. VoxEU page,forthcoming, Open Economies Review

Joshua Aizenman and Reuven Glick. "Asset Class Diversification and Delegation of Responsibilities between Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds", SCIIE / Department working paper, September 2010.

Joshua Aizenman and Gurnain Kaur Pasricha. "Fiscal Fragility: What the Past May Say About the Future", SCIIE / Department working paper, September 2010. VoxEU page

Joshua Aizenman and Gurnain Kaur Pasricha. "Determinants of Financial Stress and Recovery during the Great Recession", SCIIE / Department working paper, September 2010.

Joshua Aizenman and Michael Hutchison. "Exchange Market Pressure and Absorption by International Reserves: Emerging Markets and Fear of Reserve Loss During the 2008-09 Crisis", SCIIE / Department working paper, September 2010.

Joshua Aizenman with Gurnain Kaur Pasricha. "On the Ease of Overstating the Fiscal Stimulus in the US, 2008-09", SCIIE / Department working paper, February 2010. VoxEU page

Joshua Aizenman and Nancy Marion. "Using Inflation to Erode the U.S. Public Debt", SCIIE / Department working paper, December 2010. VoxEU page

Joshua Aizenman. "Hoarding International Reserves Versus a Pigovian Tax-Cum-Subsidy Scheme: Reflections on the Deleveraging Crisis of 2008-9, and a Cost Benefit Analysis", SCIIE / Department working paper, revised March 2011. Forthcoming, Journel of Economic Dynamics and Control. VoxEU page

Joshua Aizenman and Yi "Andy" Sun. "The Financial Crisis and Sizable International Reserves Depletion: From 'Fear of Floating' to the 'Fear of Losing International Reserves'?", SCIIE / Department working paper, revised December 2009. VoxEU page

Joshua Aizenman and Nan Geng. "Adjustment of State Owned and Foreign-Funded Enterprises in China to Economic Reforms, 1980s-2007: a Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) Approach", SCIIE / Department working paper, May 2009.

Joshua Aizenman and Michael Hutchison and Ilan Noy. "Inflation Targeting and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets", Department working paper, December 2008. Forthcoming, World Development.

Joshua Aizenman and Menzie Chinn and Hiro Ito. "Assessing the Emerging Global Financial Architecture: Measuring the Trilemma's Configurations over Time", Department working paper, revised April 2009. VoxEU page

Joshua Aizenman and Jake Kendall. "The Internationalization of Venture Capital and Private Equity", SCIIE / Department working paper, September 2008, forthcoming, Journal of Economic Studies.

Joshua Aizenman and Richard Agenor. "Capital Market Imperfections and the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas", SCIIE / Department working paper, June 2008.

Joshua Aizenman and Kenneth Kletzer. "The life cycle of scholars and papers in economics -- the 'citation death tax'", SCIIE / Department working paper, March 2008, forthcoming, Applied Economics. VoxEU page

Joshua Aizenman, Kenneth Kletzer and Brian Pinto. "Economic Growth with Constraints on Tax Revenues and Public Debt: Implications for Fiscal Policy and Cross-Country Differences", January 2007.

Globalization, Trade/Financial openness, and Liberalisation

"Globalization and Developing Countries - a Shrinking Tax Base?", with Yothin Jinjarak. updated May 2007. Forthcoming, Journal of Development Studies.

"Globalization and taste convergence: The cases of wine and beer", with Eileen L. Brooks. Forthcoming, Review of International Economics.

"Endogenous financial and trade openness", with Ilan Noy. Forthcoming, Review of International Economics.

"Financial Liberalisations in Latin America in the 1990s: A Reassessment", The World Economy, 2005.

"Financial Opening and Development: Evidence and Policy Controversies", American Economic Review, May 2004.

"Financial Opening: Evidence and Policy Options", in "Challenges to Globalization", R. Baldwin and A. Winters, eds., University of Chicago Press, 2004.

"Capital Mobility in a Second Best World- Moral Hazard with Costly Financial Intermediation", 2003, Review of International Economics, pp. 1-17.  

Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries

"FDI and Trade - Two Way Linkages?", October 2005, with Ilan Noy. Forthcoming, Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance.

"Institutional Efficiency and the Investment Share of FDI", with Mark M. Spiegel. Forthcoming, Review of International Economics.

"Opposition to FDI and Financial Shocks", Journal of Development Economics 77 (2005) pp. 467-476.

"The Merits of Horizontal versus Vertical FDI in the Presence of Uncertainty", with Nancy Marion. Journal of International Economics, 2004, Vol. 62, pp. 125-48.

"Volatility, employment and the patterns of FDI in emerging markets", Journal of Development Economics, 2003, Vol. 72, pp. 585-601.  

International Reserves and financial integration in Developing Countries

"The Impossible Trinity (aka The Policy Trilemma)", Department working paper, May 2010, the Encyclopedia of Financial Globalization.

"International Reserves and Swap Lines: Substitutes or Complements?", with Yothin Jinjarak and Donghyun Park. 2010, International Review of Economics and Finance. VoxEU page

"Macro Prudential Supervision in the Open Economy, and the role of Central Banks in Emerging Markets", SCIIE / Department working paper, January 2010, Open Economies Review.

"Selective Swap Arrangements and the Global Financial Crisis: Analysis & Interpretation", with Gurnain Pasricha. SCIIE / Department working paper, March 2009, forthcoming, International Review of Economics and Finance.

"Sovereign Wealth Funds: Stylized Facts about their Determinants and Governance", with R. Glick. SCIIE / Department working paper, December 2008, International Finance, 2009, 12,3, 351-386. VoxEU page

"The US as the 'Demander of Last Resort' and it's Implications on China's Current Account", with Y. Jinjarak. SCIIE / Department working paper, Pacific Economic Review, 2009, 14:3 pp. 426-442.

"Sovereign Wealth Funds: Stumbling Blocks or Stepping Stones to Financial Globalization?", with Reuven Glick. FRBSF Economic Letter 2007-38; December 14, 2007.

"Large hoarding of international reserves and the emerging global economic architecture", July 2007, Keynote address, The Manchester School, 2008, 76:5, pp. 487-503.

"Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism-Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding", with Jaewoo Lee. The World Economy 2008.

"Reserves and the Crisis: A Reassessment", Central Banking, Vol. 19, No. 3.

"On Prudent Regulation: To Regulate Foreign or Domestic Intermediation?", Harvard International Review, Winter 2009.

"Sterilization, Monetary Policy, and Global Financial Integration", with R. Glick. Revised September 2008. Forthcoming, Review of International Economics.

"The Real Exchange Rate, Mercantilism and the Learning by Doing Externality", with Jaewoo Lee. Revised August 2008. Forthcoming, Pacific Economic Review.

"Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of growing financial and trade integration", with Daniel Riera. February 2007. Forthcoming, Review of Economics and Statistics.

"International reserves management and the current account", Forthcoming, Current Account and External Financing, Santiago, the Central Bank of Chile, Edited by K. Cowan, Se. Edwards and R. Valdés. revised February 2007.

"Financial Crisis and International Reserves", Prepared for the Princeton Encyclopedia of the World Economy, Princeton University Press., February 2007.

"International Reserves: Precautionary versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence", with Jaewoo Lee. forthcoming at the Open Economies Review.

"Ex ante carrots instead of ex post sticks: two examples", October 2005. The Journal of the Korean Economy, Fall 2005, pp. 131-159.

"International Reserves Management and Capital Mobility in a Volatile World: Policy Considerations and a Case Study of Korea", October 2005, with Yeonho Lee, and Yeongseop Rhee. Forthcoming, Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.

"International Reserve Holdings with Sovereign Risk and Costly Tax Collection", with Nancy Marion. Economic Journal, July 2004.

"The High Demand for International Reserves in the Far East: What's Going On?", with Nancy Marion. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 2003, 17/3, pp. 370-400.

"Reserve Uncertainty and the Supply of International Credit", with Nancy Marion. JMCB, Volume 34, Number 3 (Part 1), August 2002, pp. 631-649.

"Reserve Requirement on Sovereign Debt in the Presence of Moral Hazard -- on Debtors or Creditors?", with S. Turnovsky. Economic Journal, January 2002, pp. 107-132.

"International Reserves", forthcoming, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition.  

Crises, Sovereign Debt, and Volatility in Developing Countries

"Financial Crisis and the Paradox of Under- and Over-Regulation", Department working paper, August 2009, ABCDE World Bank Conference Proceedings.

"On the Paradox of Prudential Regulations in the Globalized Economy; International Reserves and the Crisis: A Reassessment", SCIIE / Department working paper, February 2009.

"Aid Volatility and Poverty Traps", with R. Agenor, forthcoming, Journal of Development Economics, 2009.

"Managing Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide Overview", with Brian Pinto. Lead Chapter, in Managing Economic Volatility and Crises: A Practitioner's Guide, Aizenman J. and B. Pinto (eds.), forthcoming, Cambridge University Press, 2005.

"Sargent-Wallace Meets Krugman-Flood-Garber, or: Why Sovereign Debt Swaps Do Not Avert Macroeconomic Crises", with Kenneth M. Kletzer and Brian Pinto. The Economic Journal, 115 (April 2005) pp. 343-367.

"Optimal tax and debt policy with endogenously imperfect creditworthiness", with Michael Gavin and Ricardo Hausmann. Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 2000, 9:4 pp. 367-395.

"Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth", with Nancy Marion. Review of International Economics, June 1993, pp. 145-163.  

Saving, investment, and growth in the open economy

"Current account patterns and national real estate markets", with Y. Jinjarak. SCIIE / Department working paper, revised September 2008. Journal of Urban Economics, 2009, 66:2, pp. 75-89.

"Globalization and the Sustainability of Large Current Account Imbalances: Size Matters", with Yi Sun. SCIIE / department Working paper, revised January 2010, Journal of Macroeconomics.

"Takeoffs", with Mark Spiegel. April 2010, Review of Development Economics.

"Prizes for Basic Research- Human Capital, Economic Might and the Shadow of History", with Ilan Noy. forthcoming, Journal of Economic Growth.

"Sources for financing domestic capital - is foreign saving a viable option for developing countries?", with Brian Pinto and Artur Radziwill. Forthcoming, Journal of International Money and Finance.

"Savings and the terms of trade under borrowing constraints", with Pierre-Richard Agenor. Journal of International Economics, 2004, Volume 63, pp. 321-340.

"Volatility and Financial Intermediation", with Andrew Powell. Journal of International Money and Finance, 2003, 22/5 pp. 657-679.

"International Portfolio Diversification with Generalized Expected Utility Preferences", Canadian Journal of Economics, August 1999, pp. 995-1008.

"The political economy of public savings and the role of capital mobility", with Andrew Powell. Journal of Developments Economics, 57 , pp. 67-95 1998.

"Buffer stocks and precautionary savings with loss aversion", Journal of International Money and Finance, 17, pp. 931-947, 1998.

"Volatility and Investment: Interpreting Evidence from Developing Countries", with Nancy Marion. Economica, May 1999, 66, pp. 157-79.

"Emerging Markets", forthcoming, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition.

"Technological Change, Relative Wages, and Unemployment", with Pierre-Richard Agenor. European Economic Review, 1997, 41:2, pp. 187-206.

Fiscal and monetary issues in Developing Countries

"The collection efficiency of the value added tax: theory and international evidence", with Yothin Jinjarak, August 2005. forthcoming, Journal of international trade and economic development.

"Military Expenditure, Threats, and Growth", with Reuven Glick, Journal of International Trade and Development, Vol. 15, No. 2, 129 155, June 2006.

"Competitive Externalities and the Optimal Seigniorage", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 24, February 1992, pp. 61-71.

"Soft Budget Constraints, Taxes and the Incentive to Cooperate", International Economic Review, November 1993, pp. 819-832.

"On the Hidden Links between Financial and Trade Opening", forthcoming, Journal of International Money and Finance.

Exchange rate regimes and pricing in the open economy

"Relative Price Levels and Current Accounts: An Exploration", SCIIE / Department working paper, revised November 2008, Journal of International Economic Studies, 2008, pp. 3-33.

"Pegged Exchange Rate Regimes ­ A Trap?", with Reuven Glick. Forthcoming, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

"Monetary and Real Shocks, Productive Capacity and Exchange Rate Regimes", Economica, November 1994, pp. 407-34.

"Endogenous Pricing to Market and Financing Costs", Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 51, May 2004, pp. 691-712.