Department Brown Bag Seminars

Wednesday 12:00 noon 1:05 p.m.

Fall Quarter 2020

October 21
Hikaru Saijo
"Uncertainty Shocks in Networks"
Existing studies on uncertainty shocks focus on economy-wide shocks that affect all sectors symmetrically and simultaneously. However, as the recent COVID-19 pandemic underscores, a rise in uncertainty often appears to be concentrated in several specific sectors. In this paper, I study how these sector-specific uncertainty shocks propagate and affect aggregate outcomes. First, using sector-level data, I estimate sectoral TFP and demand processes allowing for stochastic volatility. I show that sectoral TFP and demand display nontrivial fluctuations in volatility even after controlling for economy-wide variations. I estimate local projections and find that an increase in sector-specific TFP or demand volatility reduces output in that sector. Second, I use the estimated sectoral TFP and demand processes to simulate the impact of sector-specific volatility shocks in a calibrated multi-sector New Keynesian model that features input-output networks. I find that sectoral volatility shocks generate contractions in aggregate output, hours, consumption, and investment. The key mechanism is the precautionary pricing motive that multiplies and propagates to other sectors.

November 18
Alan Spearot
"Did COVID-19 Market Disruptions Disrupt Food Security? Evidence from Households in Rural Liberia and Malawi

December 2
Dohyeon Lee
"Selective Accumulation of Ideas: Accounting for the Decline in Entry Rate"

December 9
Galina Hale
"Effective Academic Presentation Part 2: Zoom and Other Platforms"

December 16
Brenda Samaniego